Stock Forecasting Made Simple

Forecasting sounds like data science. For most SMEs, it's arithmetic with discipline.

The formula that covers 80% of cases

Reorder quantity = (daily velocity × lead time) + safety stock − current stock − on-order

Where:

**Daily velocity** = average units sold per day over the last 30 days.

**Lead time** = days from PO to receipt, including buffer.

**Safety stock** = velocity × variability factor (typically 1.5–2× std deviation).

For seasonal items (umbrellas, ACs, Diwali sweets), apply a season multiplier based on last year's same-month sales. The pattern repeats.

If you're running a 20% discount next week, your velocity will spike. Plan POs accordingly.

New products with no history, supplier issues, festival rush — these need human judgment. The model should suggest, the buyer should decide.

Velocity-based reorder suggestions, seasonality adjustments, and one-click PO generation — all from the same dashboard your buyer already uses.